FORECASTING THE SPATIAL DYNAMICS OF THE EPIZOOTIC PROCESS PLAGUE AMONG THE WILD ANIMALS IN THE DESERT PLAGUE FOCI OF KAZAKHSTAN FOR THE PERIOD 2020-2024. BASED ON GIS TECHNOLOGIES
Main Article Content
Authors
Z.Zh. Abdel
M. Aikimbayev National Scientific Center for Especially Dangerous Infections, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan
Z.B. Zhumadylova
M. Aikimbayev National Scientific Center for Especially Dangerous Infections, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan
A.M. Aikimbayev
M. Aikimbayev National Scientific Center for Especially Dangerous Infections, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan
G.Zh. Tokmurziyeva
M. Aikimbayev National Scientific Center for Especially Dangerous Infections, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan
R.S. Mussagaliyeva
M. Aikimbayev National Scientific Center for Especially Dangerous Infections, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan
A.A. Abdirassilova
M. Aikimbayev National Scientific Center for Especially Dangerous Infections, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan
S.B. Issayeva
M. Aikimbayev National Scientific Center for Especially Dangerous Infections, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan
B.A. Baitursyn
M. Aikimbayev National Scientific Center for Especially Dangerous Infections, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan
Zh.S. Dalibayev
M. Aikimbayev National Scientific Center for Especially Dangerous Infections, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan
B.Z. Abdeliyev
M. Aikimbayev National Scientific Center for Especially Dangerous Infections, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan
E.Zh. Begimbayeva
M. Aikimbayev National Scientific Center for Especially Dangerous Infections, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan
A.M. Shayakhmetov
M. Aikimbayev National Scientific Center for Especially Dangerous Infections, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan
V.P. Sadovskaya
M. Aikimbayev National Scientific Center for Especially Dangerous Infections, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan
N.N. Shaki
M. Aikimbayev National Scientific Center for Especially Dangerous Infections, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan
D.M. Otebay
M. Aikimbayev National Scientific Center for Especially Dangerous Infections, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan
T.Z. Sagidulin
M. Aikimbayev National Scientific Center for Especially Dangerous Infections, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan
Zh.B. Kurmanov
Aktobe Anti-Plague Station, Aktobe, Republic of Kazakhstan
L.B. Nurmagambetova
Atyrau Anti-Plague Station, Atyrau, Republic of Kazakhstan
A.Sh. Daurbayev
Zhambyl Anti-Plague Station, Taraz, Republic of Kazakhstan
E.A. Asymkulov
Taldykorgan Anti-Plague Station, Taldykorgan, Republic of Kazakhstan
G.M. Sairambekova
M. Aikimbayev National Scientific Center for Especially Dangerous Infections, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan
Abstract
The present study is aimed at spatial and temporal analysis and prediction of the epizootic process of plague infection among wild animals in desert natural plague foci of the Republic of Kazakhstan using geoinformation modeling methods. The data of epizootological monitoring for 2020–2024 were used as the initial base, including information on the abundance and distribution of the main reservoir species (Rhombomys opimus), vector activity (ectoparasites), as well as climatic, landscape and anthropogenic characteristics of the studied territories.
Spatial data was processed and visualized using the ArcGIS and QGIS software platforms. Situational, analytical, and predictive electronic maps of epizootic activity have been constructed.
By the modeling results, it was found that in the future, epizootic activity is most likely to increase in the western parts of the desert zone of Kazakhstan, including in the North Aral, Volga-Ural sandy, Predustyurt and Ustyurt foci. A potential increase in risk is also expected in the Betpakdalinsky, Moyinkumsky and Dariyalyk-Takyr autonomous foci. Under the conditions of predicted climatic changes, the probability of expanding the circulation zones of the plague pathogen may increase, which increases the risk of infection of humans and camels in enzootic territories.
The research results have high applied significance and can be used to optimize epizootological surveillance systems, plan preventive and anti-epidemic measures, and minimize the risk of transmission of plague infection from animals to humans.
Keywords
plague, epizootic, natural focus, GIS technology, forecasting
Article Details
References
World Health Organization (WHO). Plague: Disease Fact Sheet. – Geneva: WHO, 2023. – Available at: URL (accessed: May 23, 2025).
Zlobin V.I. Plague: Epidemiology, Prevention and Surveillance. – Novosibirsk: Siberian Federal Scientific Center, 2019. – 412 p.
The plague wand. The material is from Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. – URL: URL plague wand (date of request: 01.10.2024).
Plague Manual: Epidemiology, Distribution, Surveillance and Control. – WHO/CDS/CSR/EDC/99.2. – P. 11. Available at: URL (accessed: October 1, 2024).
Popov N.V., Karnaukhov I.G. et al. Assessment of the Current Epidemiological Situation in the Natural Foci of Plague Worldwide // Problems of Particularly Dangerous Infections. – 2019. – No. 1. – P. 81–88. Crossref
He Z., Wei B. et al. Distribution and Characteristics of Human Plague Cases and Yersinia pestis Isolates from 4 Marmot Plague Foci, China, 1950–2019 // Emerging Infectious Diseases. – 2021. – Vol. 27, No. 10. – P. 2544–2553. Crossref
Forecast of Epizootic Activity of Natural Plague Foci in the Russian Federation for the First Half of 2025. – Russian Scientific and Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe.” Available at: URL (accessed: February 5, 2025).
Liu B.X., Duan R. et al. Analysis on Prevalence and Epidemic Risk of Animal Plague in Different Ecological Plague Foci in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region // Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine. – 2022. – Vol. 56, No. 1. – P. 9–14. Crossref
Qin J., Wu Y. et al. Genomic Diversity of Yersinia pestis from Yunnan Province, China, Implies a Potential Common Ancestor as the Source of Two Plague Epidemics // Communications Biology. – 2023. – Vol. 6, No. 1. – P. 847. Crossref
Otgonbayar D., Baigalmaa M. et al. Epidemiological and Clinical Features of Plague Cases Registered in Khovd Province, Mongolia (1993–2022) // Current Issues on Zoonotic Diseases. – Ulaanbaatar, 2023. – Issue 25. – P. 74–75.
Negi S., Tripathy S. et al. Plague Outbreak in Madagascar Amidst COVID-19: A Re-emerging Public Health Concern // Clinical Infection in Practice. – 2023. – Vol. 17, No. 8. – P. 100222. Crossref
Rakotosamimanana S., Taglioni F. et al. Socioenvironmental Determinants as Indicators of Plague Risk in the Central Highlands of Madagascar: Experience of Ambositra and Tsiroanomandidy Districts // PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases. – 2023. – Vol. 17, No. 9. – e0011538. Crossref
Abdeliyev B.Z., Dalibayev Z.S. et al. Zoning of the Territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan by the Degree of Epizootic Intensity of Plague in Camels // Problems of Particularly Dangerous Infections. – 2022. – No. 2. – P. 64–69. Crossref
Atshabar B.B., Burdelov L.A., Izbanova U.A. et al. Passport of Regions of Kazakhstan for Particularly Dangerous Infections // Quarantine and Zoonotic Infections in Kazakhstan. – 2015. – Vol. 1, No. 31. – P. 5–177.
Abdel Z.Zh., Erubaev T.K., Tokmurzieva G.Zh. et al. Demarcation of the Boundaries of the Central Asian Desert Natural Focus of Plague of Kazakhstan and Monitoring the Area of the Main Carrier, Rhombomys opimus // Problems of Particularly Dangerous Infections. – 2021. – No. 2. – P. 71–78. Crossref
Aikimbaev A.M. et al. Epidemic Potential of Natural Plague Foci of Kazakhstan. – Almaty: OOP "DOIVA Medeusky District of Almaty", 2006. – 153 p.
Rivkus Yu.Z., Blummer A.G. Endemicity of Plague in the Deserts of Central Asia and Kazakhstan. – Voronezh, Russia, 2016. – P. 358.
Popova A.Y., Kutyrev V.V. Ensuring Epidemiological Well-Being in Natural Plague Foci of CIS Countries and Mongolia Under Modern Conditions / Ed. Prof. A.Y. Popova, Acad. RAS, Prof. V.V. Kutyrev. – Izhevsk: Print, 2018. – 336 p.
World Health Organization (WHO). Plague. [Electronic Resource]. – Available at: URL (accessed: February 10, 2022).
Yumashev M.M. Geographical Aspects of Epidemics of Natural Plague Foci // Bulletin of Geography. – 2008. – No. 4. – P. 62–69.
Abdrakhmanov S.K. Epizootic Monitoring and Risk Assessment of Rabies Spread Among Wild Animals Using GIS // Kaz-Vet. – 2014. – No. 3. – P. 23–27.
Skabylov A.A., Nyshanov N.S., Kulemin M.V. Modeling and Assessment of Biological Risks in Endemic Areas of Turkestan Region and Shymkent Urban Agglomeration // Bulletin of KazNU. Series Biology. – 2024. – No. 1(81). – P. 87–94.
Skabylov A.A. Use of Regression Analysis and GIS Technologies to Assess Epizootic Activity of Natural Plague Foci in Kazakhstan // RUSMED. – 2023. – No. 2(14). – P. 45–53.
Akimov A.P., Levin S.Z. Natural Focal Infections: Epizootiology and Monitoring. – Almaty: Nauka, 2011. – 298 p.
Korenberg E.I. Natural Focal Infections in the Ecosystems of Eurasia. – Moscow: Nauka, 2004. – 344 p.
Yumashev M.M. Geographical Aspects of Epidemics of Natural Plague Foci // Bulletin of Geography. – 2008. – No. 4. – P. 62–69.
Baimukhambetov M.Zh., Azhdarbekov E.A. Features of Plague Spread in the Desert Regions of Kazakhstan and Methods of Their Mapping // Bulletin of the NAS RK. – 2021. – No. 2. – P. 101–108.
ESRI CIS. GIS in Epidemiology: Experience in GIS Application for Monitoring Plague Foci // ArcReview. – 2010. – No. 4. – Available at: URL (accessed: May 23, 2025).
Rametov N.M., Steiner M., Bizhanova N. A., Abdel Z. Zh., Yessimseit D. T., Abdeliyev B. Z., Mussagaliyeva R. S. (2023). Mapping plague risk using Super Species Distribution Models and forecasts for rodents in the Zhambyl region, Kazakhstan. GeoHealth, 7, e2023GH000853. Crossref
Aikymbayev A.M., Abdel Z.Zh., Zhumadilova Z.B., Tokmurziyeva G.Zh., Meka-Mechenko T.V., Mussagaliyeva R.S., Baitursyn B., Umarova S.K. Systematization of indicators and standards of epidemiological and epizootological surveillance of plague to improve preventive (anti-plague) measures in the Republic of Kazakhstan. Biosafety and Biotechnology. 2024;(19):6-30. Crossref
Dubyansky V.M., Burdelov L.A. Computer Model of the Plague Epizootic Process in Great Gerbil Settlements (Rhombomys opimus): Description and Adequacy Verification // Zoological Journal. – 2010. – Vol. 89, No. 1. – P. 79–87.
Dubyansky V.M., Burdelov L.A. Observation of Great Gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) Colonies Using Remote Sensing in Plague Foci of the Republic of Kazakhstan // Proceedings of the VIII All-Russian Conference "Modern Problems of Remote Sensing of the Earth from Space". – Moscow: IKI RAS, 2010. – P. 154–159.
Addink E.A., de Jong S.M., Davis S. et al. Using Very High Resolution Remote Sensing to Monitor and Combat Outbreaks of Bubonic Plague in Kazakhstan // Proceedings of the XIV Brazilian Remote Sensing Symposium. – Natal RN, Brazil, 2009. – P. 1–6.
Addink E.A., de Jong S.M., Davis S. et al. The Use of High-Resolution Remote Sensing for Plague Surveillance in Kazakhstan // Remote Sensing of Environment. – 2010. – Vol. 114. – P. 674–681. Crossref
Dubyansky V.M. Concept of GIS and Remote Sensing in Plague Surveillance // Doctor and Information Technologies. – 2012. – No. 2. – P. 42–46.
Dubyansky V.M. Computer Modeling of Epizootic Situation with the Use of Remote Sensing in the Epidemiological Surveillance of Plague (Based on the Central Asian Natural Focus): Abstract of Doctoral Dissertation. – Moscow, 2015. – 33 p.
Burdelov L.A. Use of Remote Sensing for the Analysis of Natural Plague Foci // Geography and Natural Resources. – 2009. – No. 2. – P. 122–126.
Stenseth N.C., Samia N.I., Viljugrein H. et al. Plague Dynamics Are Driven by Climate Variation // Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. – 2006. – Vol. 103, No. 35. – P. 13110–13115.
Gage K.L., Kosoy M.Y. Natural History of Plague: Perspectives from More than a Century of Research // Annual Review of Entomology. – 2005. – Vol. 50. – P. 505–528.
Parmenter R.R., Yadav E.P., Parmenter C.A. et al. Incidence of Plague Associated with Increased Winter–Spring Precipitation in New Mexico // American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. – 1999. – Vol. 61, No. 5. – P. 814–821.
Biggins D.E., Kosoy M.Y. Influences of Introduced Plague on North American Mammals: Implications from the Ecology of Plague in Asia // Journal of Mammalogy. – 2001. – Vol. 82, No. 4. – P. 906–916.
Organization and Implementation of Epidemiological Surveillance in Natural Plague Foci in the CIS Countries. Methodological Recommendations. – Saratov, 2019. – 113 p.
Practical Guide to Biological Safety in Laboratory Conditions. Third edition. – Geneva: World Health Organization, 2004. – 190 p. URL
Atshabar B.B., Burdelov L.A., Izbanova U.A. et al. Passport of Regions of Kazakhstan for Particularly Dangerous Infections // Quarantine and Zoonotic Infections in Kazakhstan. – 2015. – Vol. 1, No. 31. – P. 5–177.
Atlas of Natural Plague Foci of Russia and Foreign Countries / Ed. A.Y. Popova, Acad. RAS, Prof. V.V. Kutyrev. – Kaliningrad: RA Poligrafych, 2022. – 348 p.
Perry R.D., Fetherston J.D. Yersinia pestis, Etiologic Agent of Plague // Clinical Microbiology Reviews. – 1997. – Vol. 10, No. 1. – P. 35–66. Crossref
Gage K.L., Kosoy M.Y. Natural History of Plague: Perspectives from More Than a Century of Research // Annual Review of Entomology. – 2005. – Vol. 50. – P. 505–528. Crossref
Stenseth N.C. et al. Plague: Past, Present, and Future // PLoS Medicine. – 2006. – Vol. 3, No. 1. – e2. Crossref
Anisimov A.P., Lindler L.E., Pier G.B. Infectious Disease Emergencies: Plague // Clinical Infectious Diseases. – 2004. – Vol. 39, No. 9. – P. 1359–1366. Crossref
Eisen R.J., Gage K.L. Transmission of Flea-Borne Zoonotic Agents // Annual Review of Entomology. – 2012. – Vol. 57. – P. 61–82. Crossref
Thomson M.C. et al. Malaria Early Warnings Based on Seasonal Climate Forecasts from Multi-Model Ensembles // Nature. – 2006. – Vol. 439, No. 7076. – P. 576–579. Crossref
Wikipedia. Interpolation. – 2024. – Available at: URL
MaxEnt Software for Species Habitat Modeling. – Available at: URL
World Health Organization (WHO). Plague Surveillance Report. – 2020. – Available at: URL